Pre-match value bets
The forward, live replication of a strategy tested on thirteen years of football history: the leagues and markets the test covered, one look per match - checked automatically every two hours.
updated just now
Sports value intelligence
Grecotipster finds the sports-market prices that sit above the break-even price a tested strategy calculates — the price where the numbers say a bet becomes value. We show you the numbers. You decide.
Our running average Break-even range -2.1% to +2.7%
At this sample the average is still inside the range luck alone would produce. The bar we set ourselves is 500 graded bets, and every one of them is published whichever way it goes. The opening 8 bets run off the bottom of this frame — the average after the first was -6.8%. See the whole record →
Status Building the sample
Pre-match value bets
The forward, live replication of a strategy tested on thirteen years of football history: the leagues and markets the test covered, one look per match - checked automatically every two hours.
A value zone on every live signal
Each in-play signal comes with its break-even odds and its value zone, calculated from that strategy's own measured strike rate - the odds at which the signal is a value bet.
Every result, in public
Every pick is written down before kick-off and graded against the market's own final verdict, win or lose. Nothing is deleted.
Timestamped
Every selection is recorded the moment it is sent, and never edited.
Recorded
Every result is graded and added to the public record.
Visible
Every losing selection stays on the record. Nothing is deleted.
Public
Our historical performance is published in full. See it
What the method did on the archive. Different bookmakers, different countries, different years — so read it as a reason to look closer, not as what your account will do.
Return per bet
+4.93%
across 24,016 bets, 2012–2025
Luck detector
6.51
above 3 means luck is not a credible explanation
Beat the market's verdict
69%
were bought at a better price than the market's own final verdict
A better price is not a better prediction. When one bookmaker offers 2.10 on a chance the sharpest book in the market prices at 2.00, you are being paid about 5% more than the risk is worth — on that bet, whether it wins or loses. Nothing about the match has changed. Only the price you paid for it.
Stack enough of those and the arithmetic stops being an opinion: across 24,016 archive bets the method was paid 4.93% more per bet than it staked. That is a fact about a test that ended in 2025, on books and countries our live scanner does not trade — which is precisely why the curve at the top of this page exists. We would rather show you 119 bets graded in the open than a balance we say a backtest would have reached.
And something no other service we know of says out loud: bookmakers restrict accounts that keep winning. We do not place your bets and we never touch your money, so managing that is yours — but staying open is a skill, we write about it, and we would rather you heard it from us on day one than found out in month three.
Because you do not have to take our word for it. Profit is buried in luck — anyone can win for six months on a losing method. So we grade every bet on whether we bought a better price than the market's own final verdict, which converges in weeks rather than years. Across 286,398 historical bets that measure predicted realised profit with a regression slope of 1.015 — as close to unbiased as a forecast gets.
Then we publish it. Every bet, every result, updated continuously — including the stretches that are going badly. No other service we know of shows you that: we are one of the very few offering this level of value analysis, intelligence and transparency — and it is the only way to tell a real edge from a good story.
Start free — no card Free while we build the live record. Nothing to cancel.
The team leading when the signal arrives wins the match (Underdog wins)
61.6%
1038/1684 landed
Value zone: odds 1.70+ · break-even 1.62
At least 1 goal in the Second Half (2nd Half)
77.8%
863/1109 landed
Value zone: odds 1.35+ · break-even 1.29
After an active First Half: Both teams to score + Over 2.5 goals (Active 1st Half)
63.1%
297/471 landed
Value zone: odds 1.67+ · break-even 1.59
At least 1 goal in the First Half (1st Half)
73.1%
296/405 landed
Value zone: odds 1.44+ · break-even 1.37
Both teams to score (BTTS)
56.8%
42/74 landed
Value zone: odds 1.85+ · break-even 1.76
Every live signal comes with its break-even odds and its value zone, calculated from that strategy's own measured strike rate: taken at odds in the value zone, the signal is a value bet — as long as the strike rate holds. Every signal is listed, win or lose. See the record
What a live signal is: a match where our measured strike rate backs the predicted outcome. What it is not: a price or a moment to bet. In-play odds move every second, and a goal can be scored after the signal and before your bet is placed, so the odds at the moment of the signal are not odds you can count on.