updated just now

The pre-match account

Our paper account, in public

A paper bankroll of €10,000 that follows every single signal the scanner produces — automatically, with no human choosing which ones to include. Every bet is written down before kick-off and never edited afterwards.

The same bets, staked two ways
Figure Flat stake — €50 a bet Kelly staking
Total worth €10,226 €10,251
Profit on settled bets +€226+€251
Return on money staked +3.67%+4.60%
Worst drawdown −4.9%−3.9%

The same 123 settled bets in both columns. Over this few bets, the gap between them mostly shows whether the bigger stakes happened to win — it is not evidence that one way of staking is better.

Flat stake: the same €50 on every bet, as in the backtest. This is the view a reader can copy. This is a paper account with no real money at stake. It exists to show that our backtested analysis also holds in a forward test, and how a starting wallet survives and grows under each staking method. Neither view is a recommendation of what you should stake.

Balance

€10,176

available — not tied up in open bets
+ €50 committed to open bets = €10,226 total worth
started from €10,000

In open bets

€50

1 bet still running — this money is spent, not spendable
first kick-off

Return on money staked

+3.67%

€6,150 staked across 123 settled bets
weighted by stake — big bets count more, which is what the bankroll felt

Worst drawdown

−4.9%

the dip you'd have had to sit through

Bankroll, bet by bet

€9,726 low · €10,400 high · 124 points

Graded against the market's own final verdict, as bets accumulate

119 of the 500 bets that settle this. The running average is +1.68%. The dashed line marks +2.81%, the historical result on this market.

Read this before you trust the number

This is a paper account. It assumes every price shown was still available and every bet was accepted, so it carries none of the costs of actually placing them — rejected bets, and the restrictions bookmakers put on winning accounts. Your own results will differ from this line, and they can land either side of it: it depends on which bets you take, the prices you actually get, and how long your accounts stay open. This curve shows what the signal did, not what your account will do.

Every bet is recorded at the price the bookmaker offered when we found it. Your bookmaker may give you a slightly different price — slippage — and nothing is deducted for it here. Watch the CLV column below — it is the honest number, and it settles down long before the bankroll does.

Every bet

Settled bets are shown in full — that is the evidence, and none of it is edited or removed. The 1 bet still running is listed with its stake and edge but without the pick itself: that is a live selection and it is what subscribers pay for. It appears here in full the moment it settles. See them live →

Placed Kick-offMatchBet OddsStake EdgeCLV Result
Montpellier v Red Star
Ligue 2
Home 1X2 2.57 €50.00 +3.67% — +78.50
AZ Alkmaar v FC Twente Enschede
Eredivisie
Home 1X2 2.30
best of 3
€50.00 +3.02% -5.56% -50.00
Gent v Anderlecht
Belgian Pro League
Draw 1X2 3.40
best of 3
€50.00 +2.30% -1.87% -50.00
Real Sociedad v Levante
La Liga
Home 1X2 1.72 €50.00 +2.28% +9.77% +36.00
SC Freiburg v Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
Away 1X2 1.42 €50.00 +2.00% -3.57% +21.00
Toulouse v Troyes
Ligue 1
Home 1X2 1.68
best of 4
€50.00 +2.09% +3.27% -50.00
Angers v Lorient
Ligue 1
Away 1X2 2.60 €50.00 +2.46% +9.70% -50.00
Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax
Eredivisie
Away 1X2 1.56 €50.00 +2.02% +1.60% +28.00
Motherwell v Hearts
Scottish Premiership
Away 1X2 2.30
best of 2
€50.00 +2.14% +18.33% +65.00
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United
Premier League
Away 1X2 2.42 €50.00 +2.59% -12.60% +71.00
Olympiakos Piraeus v Kalamata FC
Super League Greece
Home 1X2 1.15
best of 6
€50.00 +2.99% -1.37% +7.50
Hull City v Brentford
Premier League
Away 1X2 1.78
best of 2
€50.00 +3.14% +2.79% -50.00
Genoa v Venezia
Serie A
Draw 1X2 3.50
best of 8
€50.00 +4.59% +2.08% -50.00
PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord
Eredivisie
Away 1X2 3.40
best of 3
€50.00 +4.79% +3.89% -50.00
Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga
Away 1X2 3.00
best of 10
€50.00 +2.86% -3.08% -50.00
Eintracht Braunschweig v Hannover 96
2. Bundesliga
Home 1X2 3.05
best of 10
€50.00 +3.07% -3.97% +102.50
Inter Milan v Fiorentina
Serie A
Home 1X2 1.41 €50.00 +2.86% +0.79% +20.50
Atlético Madrid v Deportivo La Coruña
La Liga
Home 1X2 1.34 €50.00 +2.96% +5.76% +17.00
RC Lens v Paris FC
Ligue 1
Away 1X2 3.02 €50.00 +4.34% -5.98% -50.00
AEK Athens v Panetolikos Agrinio
Super League Greece
Home 1X2 1.15
best of 4
€50.00 +2.01% +1.60% +7.50
Alverca v Arouca
Primeira Liga
Draw 1X2 3.50
best of 2
€50.00 +4.16% +3.31% -50.00
Valencia v Villarreal
La Liga
Away 1X2 2.27 €50.00 +2.50% +7.07% +63.50
Samsunspor v Amed SK
Süper Lig
Away 1X2 2.17
best of 12
€50.00 +3.72% -11.25% +58.50
US Catanzaro 1929 v Ascoli
Serie B
Away 1X2 2.95
best of 11
€50.00 +2.10% -9.61% +97.50
US Catanzaro 1929 v Ascoli
Serie B
Draw 1X2 3.50 €50.00 +3.45% +5.52% -50.00
FC Utrecht v FC Zwolle
Eredivisie
Home 1X2 1.68
best of 2
€50.00 +2.08% +2.29% -50.00
Rangers v St Johnstone
Scottish Premiership
Home 1X2 1.27
best of 2
€50.00 +3.02% +5.28% +13.50
Cardiff City v Birmingham City
Championship
Away 1X2 2.50 €50.00 +2.13% -4.13% -50.00
Bromley FC v Peterborough United
League One
Away 1X2 2.10
best of 10
€50.00 +2.08% +2.70% -50.00
Stoke City v Bristol City
Championship
Under O/U 2.51.93
best of 3
€50.00 +2.33% — +46.50
Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City
Championship
Away 1X2 3.10
best of 3
€50.00 +2.89% -1.15% -50.00
Rotherham United v Shrewsbury Town
League Two
Away 1X2 3.25 €50.00 +4.78% +5.18% -50.00
St Mirren v Dundee FC
Scottish Premiership
Away 1X2 3.30
best of 4
€50.00 +6.35% +5.56% -50.00
Südtirol v Sampdoria
Serie B
Draw 1X2 3.20
best of 4
€50.00 +2.96% +6.00% +110.00
Cagliari v Bologna
Serie A
Away 1X2 2.68 €50.00 +2.47% -2.84% +84.00
Gazişehir Gaziantep v Erzurum BB
Süper Lig
Draw 1X2 3.30
best of 23
€50.00 +4.30% -2.11% -50.00
Cagliari v Bologna
Serie A
Draw 1X2 3.25
best of 10
€50.00 +4.67% +4.29% -50.00
Charlton Athletic v Norwich City
Championship
Away 1X2 2.30 €50.00 +2.04% +3.32% +65.00
Luton v Leicester City
League One
Away 1X2 3.00
best of 9
€50.00 +2.24% -5.40% -50.00
Aston Villa v Manchester City
Premier League
Away 1X2 1.71
best of 2
€50.00 +2.26% +4.71% -50.00
Huddersfield Town v Wigan Athletic
League One
Home 1X2 1.40
best of 10
€50.00 +5.08% +0.33% +20.00
Vitória SC v CS Maritimo
Primeira Liga
Home 1X2 1.62
best of 9
€50.00 +3.85% -2.01% +31.00
Torino v Monza
Serie A
Over O/U 2.51.95 €50.00 +4.20% -0.69% +47.50
Granada CF v Real Valladolid CF
Segunda División
Away 1X2 3.45
best of 6
€50.00 +3.25% -2.94% -50.00
Clermont v Guingamp
Ligue 2
Draw 1X2 3.50 €50.00 +2.54% -0.27% -50.00
Levante v Athletic Bilbao
La Liga
Draw 1X2 3.50
best of 21
€50.00 +7.19% +5.13% -50.00
Exeter City v Crewe Alexandra
League Two
Draw 1X2 3.40 €50.00 +4.01% +6.87% -50.00
Getafe v Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
Away 1X2 2.98 €50.00 +5.12% +9.74% -50.00
Rodez AF v Montpellier
Ligue 2
Draw 1X2 3.50
best of 35
€50.00 +10.31% -6.81% -50.00
Real Madrid v Sevilla
La Liga
Home 1X2 1.29 €50.00 +3.30% +1.40% +14.50